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To predict whether a coronal mass ejection (CME) will impact Earth, theeffects of the background on the CME's trajectory must be taken into account.We develop a model, ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory), of CMEdeflection due to magnetic forces. ForeCAT includes CME expansion, a three-partpropagation model, and the effects of drag on the CME's deflection. Given thebackground solar wind conditions, the launch site of the CME, and theproperties of the CME (mass, final propagation speed, initial radius, andinitial magnetic strength), ForeCAT predicts the deflection of the CME. Twodifferent magnetic backgrounds are considered: a scaled background based ontype II radio burst profiles and a Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS)background. For a scaled background where the CME is launched from an activeregion located between a CH and streamer region the strong magnetic gradientscause a deflection of 8.1 degrees in latitude and 26.4 degrees in longitude fora 1e15 g CME propagating out to 1 AU. Using the PFSS background, which capturesthe variation of the streamer belt position with height, leads to a deflectionof 1.6 degrees in latitude and 4.1 degrees in longitude for the control case.Varying the CME's input parameters within observed ranges leads to the majorityof CMEs reaching the streamer belt within the first few solar radii. For thesespecific backgrounds, the streamer belt acts like a potential well that forcesthe CME into an equilibrium angular position.

Forecasting a Coronal Mass Ejection's Altered Trajectory: ForeCAT