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A key goal of the Kepler mission is the discovery of Earth-size transitingplanets in "habitable zones" where stellar irradiance maintains a temperateclimate on an Earth-like planet. Robust estimates of planet radius andirradiance require accurate stellar parameters, but most Kepler systems arefaint, making spectroscopy difficult and prioritization of targets desirable.The parameters of 2035 host stars were estimated by Bayesian analysis and theprobabilities p(HZ) that 2738 candidate or confirmed planets orbit in thehabitable zone were calculated. Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program models werecompared to photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog, priors for stellar mass,age, metallicity and distance, and planet transit duration. The analysisyielded probability density functions for calculating confidence intervals ofplanet radius and stellar irradiance, as well as p(HZ). Sixty-two planets havep(HZ) > 0.5 and a most probable stellar irradiance within habitable zonelimits. Fourteen of these have radii less than twice the Earth; the objectsmost resembling Earth in terms of radius and irradiance are KOIs 2626.01 and3010.01, which orbit late K/M-type dwarf stars. The fraction of Kepler dwarfstars with Earth-size planets in the habitable zone (eta-Earth) is 0.46, with a95% confidence interval of 0.31-0.64. Parallaxes from the Gaia mission willreduce uncertainties by more than a factor of five and permit definitiveassignments of transiting planets to the habitable zones of Kepler stars.

Candidate Planets in the Habitable Zones of Kepler Stars