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We present a framework to conservatively estimate the probability that anyparticular planet-like transit signal observed by the Kepler mission is in facta planet, prior to any ground-based follow-up efforts. We use Monte Carlomethods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models,and report a priori false positive probabilities for every Kepler Object ofInterest in tabular form, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-inplanets in the radius range 0.5 Rearth < Rp < 20 Rearth. Almost every candidatehas FPP <10%, and over half have FPP <5%. This probability varies most stronglywith the magnitude and Galactic latitude of the Kepler target star, and moreweakly with transit depth. We establish that a single deep high-resolutionimage will be an extremely effective follow-up tool for the shallowest(Earth-sized) transits, providing the quickest route towards probabilistically"validating" the smallest candidates by potentially decreasing the falsepositive probability of an earth-sized transit around a faint star from >10% to<1%. On the other hand, we show that the most useful follow-up observations formoderate-depth (super-Earth and Neptune-sized) candidates are shallower AOimaging and high S/N spectroscopy. Since Kepler has detected many moreplanetary signals than can be positively confirmed with ground-based follow-upefforts in the near term, these calculations will be crucial to using theensemble of Kepler data to determine population characteristics of planetarysystems. We also describe how our analysis complements the Kepler team's moredetailed BLENDER false positive analysis for planet validation.

On the Low False Positive Probabilities of Kepler Planet Candidates