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Astrophysical false positives due to stellar eclipsing binaries pose one ofthe greatest challenges to ground-based surveys for transiting Hot Jupiters. Wehave used known properties of multiple star systems and Hot Jupiter systems topredict, a priori, the number of such false detections and the number ofgenuine planet detections recovered in two hypothetical but realisticground-based transit surveys targeting fields close to the galactic plane (b~10degrees): a shallow survey covering a magnitude range 10<V<13, and a deepsurvey covering a magnitude range 15<V<19. Our results are consistent with thecommonly-reported experience of false detections outnumbering planet detectionsby a factor of ~10 in shallow surveys, while in our synthetic deep survey wefind ~1-2 false detections for every planet detection. We characterize theeclipsing binary configurations that are most likely to cause false detectionsand find that they can be divided into three main types: (i) two dwarfsundergoing grazing transits, (ii) two dwarfs undergoing low-latitude transitsin which one component has a substantially smaller radius than the other, and(iii) two eclipsing dwarfs blended with one or more physically unassociatedforeground stars. We also predict that a significant fraction of Hot Jupiterdetections are blended with the light from other stars, showing that care mustbe taken to identify the presence of any unresolved neighbors in order toobtain accurate estimates of planetary radii. This issue is likely to extend toterrestrial planet candidates in the CoRoT and Kepler transit surveys, forwhich neighbors of much fainter relative brightness will be important.

An a priori investigation of astrophysical false positives in ground-based transiting planet surveys