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The stellar masses, mean ages, metallicities, and star formation histories ofgalaxies are now commonly estimated via stellar population synthesis (SPS)techniques. SPS relies on stellar evolution calculations from the main sequenceto stellar death, stellar spectral libraries, phenomenological dust models, andstellar initial mass functions (IMFs). The present work is the first in aseries that explores the impact of uncertainties in key phases of stellarevolution and the IMF on the derived physical properties of galaxies and theexpected luminosity evolution for a passively evolving set of stars. AMonte-Carlo Markov-Chain approach is taken to fit near-UV through near-IRphotometry of a representative sample of low- and high-redshift galaxies withthis new SPS model. Significant results include the following: 1) includinguncertainties in stellar evolution, stellar masses at z~0 carry errors of ~0.3dex at 95% CL with little dependence on luminosity or color, while at z~2, themasses of bright red galaxies are uncertain at the ~0.6 dex level; 2) eithercurrent stellar evolution models, current observational stellar libraries, orboth, do not adequately characterize the metallicity-dependence of thethermally-pulsating asymptotic giant branch phase; 3) conservative estimates onthe uncertainty of the slope of the IMF in the solar neighborhood imply thatluminosity evolution per unit redshift is uncertain at the ~0.4 mag level inthe K-band, which is a substantial source of uncertainty for interpreting theevolution of galaxy populations across time; 4) The more plausible assumptionof a distribution of stellar metallicities, rather than a fixed value as isusually assumed, can have significant effects on the interpretation of colorsblueward of the V-band. (ABRIDGED)

astrophysical journal/the astrophysical journal

The propagation of uncertainties in stellar population synthesis  modeling I: The relevance of uncertain aspects of stellar evolution and the  IMF to the derived physical properties of galaxies