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(Abridged) The repeated discovery of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at thecenters of galactic bulges, and the discovery of relations between the SMBHmass (M) and the properties of these bulges, has been fundamental in directingour understanding of both galaxy and SMBH formation and evolution. However,there are still many questions surrounding the SMBH - galaxy relations. Forexample, are the scaling relations linear and constant throughout cosmichistory, and do all SMBHs lie on the scaling relations? These questions canonly be answered by further high quality direct M estimates from a wide rangein redshift. In this paper we determine the observational requirementsnecessary to directly determine SMBH masses, across cosmological distances,using current M modeling techniques. We also discuss the SMBH detectionabilities of future facilities. We find that if different M modelingtechniques, using different spectral features, can be shown to be consistent,then both 30 m ground- and 16 m space-based telescopes will be able to sample M1e9Msol across ~95% of cosmic history. However, we find that the abilities ofground-based telescopes critically depend on future advancements in adaptiveoptics systems; more limited AO systems will result in limited effectivespatial resolutions, and forces observations towards the near-infrared wherespectral features are weaker and more susceptible to sky features. Ground-basedAO systems will always be constrained by relatively bright sky backgrounds andatmospheric transmission. The latter forces the use of multiple spectralfeatures and dramatically impacts the SMBH detection efficiency. The mostefficient way to advance our database of direct SMBH masses is thereforethrough the use of a large (16 m) space-based UVOIR telescope.

The Future of Direct Supermassive Black Hole Mass Estimates