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The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed bynumerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of theSun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces,specifically in the so-called Babcock-Leighton models of the solar cycle withspatially segregated source regions for the alpha and omega effects, play acrucial rule in this predictability. Through dynamo simulations with such amodel, we study the physical basis of solar cycle predictions by examining twocontrasting regimes, one dominated by diffusive magnetic flux transport in thesolar convection zone, the other dominated by advective flux transport bymeridional circulation. Our analysis shows that diffusion plays an importantrole in flux transport, even when the solar cycle period is governed by themeridional flow speed. We further examine the persistence of memory of pastcycles in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes through stochasticallyforced dynamo simulations. We find that in the advection-dominated regime, thismemory persists for up to three cycles, whereas in the diffusion-dominatedregime, this memory persists for mainly one cycle. This indicates that solarcycle predictions based on these two different regimes would have to rely onfundamentally different inputs - which may be the cause of conflictingpredictions. Our simulations also show that the observed solar cycleamplitude-period relationship arises more naturally in the diffusion dominatedregime, thereby supporting those dynamo models in which diffusive fluxtransport plays a dominant role in the solar convection zone.

astrophysical journal/the astrophysical journal

Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport  Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated  Solar Convection Zones