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Observations over the past two solar cycles show a highly irregular patternof occurrence for major solar flares, gamma-ray events, and solar energeticparticle (SEP) fluences. Such phenomena do not appear to follow the directindices of solar magnetic activity, such as the sunspot number. I show thatthis results from the non-Poisson occurrence for the most energetic events.This Letter also points out a particularly striking example of thisirregularity in a comparison between the declining phases of the recent twosolar cycles (1993-1995 and 2004-2006, respectively) and traces it through theradiated energies of the flares, the associated SEP fluences, and the sunspotareas. These factors suggest that processes in the solar interior involved withthe supply of magnetic flux up to the surface of the Sun have strongcorrelations in space and time, leading to a complex occurrence pattern that ispresently unpredictable on timescales longer than active region lifetimes(weeks) and not correlated well with the solar cycle itself.

The Unpredictability of the Most Energetic Solar Events