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Using a model for self-regulated growth of black holes (BHs) in mergersinvolving gas-rich galaxies, we study the relationship between quasars and thepopulation of merging galaxies and predict the merger-induced star formationrate density of the Universe. Mergers drive nuclear gas inflows, fuelingstarbursts and 'buried quasars' until accretion feedback expels the gas,rendering a briefly visible optical quasar. Star formation is shut down andaccretion declines, leaving a passively evolving remnant with propertiestypical of red, elliptical galaxies. Based on evolution of these events in oursimulations, we demonstrate that the observed statistics of merger rates,luminosity functions (LFs) and mass functions, SFR distributions, specificSFRs, quasar and quasar host galaxy LFs, and elliptical/red galaxy LFs areself-consistent and follow from one another as predicted by the mergerhypothesis. We use our simulations to de-convolve both quasar and merginggalaxy LFs to determine the birthrate of black holes of a given final mass andmerger rates as a function of stellar mass. We use this to predict the merginggalaxy LF in several observed wavebands, color-magnitude relations, massfunctions, absolute and specific SFR distributions and SFR density, and quasarhost galaxy LFs, as a function of redshift from z=0-6. We invert this andpredict e.g. quasar LFs from observed merger LFs or SFR distributions. Ourresults agree well with observations, but idealized models of quasarlightcurves are ruled out by comparison of merger and quasar observations at>99.9% confidence. Using only observations of quasars, we estimate thecontribution of mergers to the SFR density of the Universe even to highredshifts z~4.Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures, matches version accepted to Ap

The Relation between Quasar and Merging Galaxy Luminosity Functions and the Merger‐driven Star Formation History of the Universe