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It has been established that combinations of increased ventilation, improved filtration, and other HVAC techniques can reduce the likelihood of airborne disease transmission in buildings. However, with only qualitative guidance, it is difficult for building managers to make informed decisions. Furthermore, the possible actions almost always require additional energy consumption, which is generally not well characterized. To address this knowledge gap, we propose simplified physics-based models that can be used to quantify both the expected transmission rate and the associated energy consumption that result from HVAC system operation. By formulating all disinfection mechanisms in terms of “equivalent outdoor air”, a common basis is established for comparing and combining different strategies. The transmission rate can thus be modeled by considering the airborne concentration of infectious particles that would result from an infector in the space. Energy consumption is then estimated by considering the change in HVAC variables and applying standard analysis. To illustrate the insights provided by these models, we present examples of how the proposed analysis can be applied to specific spaces, highlighting the fact that underlying transmission risk and energy-optimal disinfection strategies can vary significantly based on space characteristics.

Quantifying the tradeoff between energy consumption and the risk of airborne disease transmission for building HVAC systems