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Gradable Epistemic Modals (GEMs) such as certain or likely have been analyzed to have the semantics of gradable adjectives, which constrain their epistemic modality. This squib analyzes the modal use of the sentential particle qad in Standard Arabic which has the following puzzling behavior: particle qad gives rise to the certainty/likelihood modality meaning only when it is composed with the tense expression of its propositional complement. Modal qad then manifests itself as an extreme, non-gradable modal with no lexically encoded but grammatically derived scale meaning. A probabilistic semantics is proposed to derive the truth conditions of the epistemic modal meaning of qad based on a monotonic, probabilistic time-world branching model. The analysis assigns maximum degree of likelihood to qad in the past tense which triggers certainty. It also assigns a minimum degree of likelihoods to qad in the present tense which triggers possibility.

A probabilistic semantics for modal QAD in standard Arabic