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Previous tourism-uncertainty assessments have employed annual or quarterly time-series, which tends to suppress the often critical short-run deviations of uncertainty. This paper utilizes higher frequency (monthly) data to examine the effects of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on tourist arrivals for a panel of 19 countries. We adopt pooled mean group (PMG), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) for analysis. We find that the effects of uncertainty on tourism demand are negative in the short-run. Conversely, the sign of the long-run GEPU coefficient is found to be positive. And, this is confirmed by alternate estimators adopted for analysis. Overall, our results suggest that tourism and policy uncertainty share a complicated relationship, therefore, policymakers should bear this in mind when forecasting tourism demand across different time spans.

Does global economic policy uncertainty drive tourism demand? A cross-country analysis