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The identification of future trends and the anticipation of market changes have become determinant to the competitiveness of organizations. Scenario planning is a useful tool in dealing with change and uncertainty. The present study aims at developing a tourism scenario, based on heuristic logic approach and the opinions of key stakeholders and actors for Hormozgan province in southern Iran. This study tried to recognize the main factors affecting the tourism industry in Hormozgan province by interviewing experts and determining the significance and uncertainty of the factors as well as key factors influencing the future of tourism using the matrix of influence and dependency to illustrate four possible scenarios for tourism in Hormozgan province in the 10-year horizon, these scenarios can be useful and efficient for managers, decision makers, and stakeholders in tourism.

Scenarios for the future of tourism in Iran (case study: Hormozgan province)