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Adaptation to climate risks involves complementarities between vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience. In this study focused on anticipatory adaptation as social dynamics and social construction, we assess county-level adaptive capacity and resilience to inland flood risks. This is done through the application of temporal models, spatial differentials of risk, and economic impulse-response dynamics in the US Upper Midwest over the last 20 years. Empirical results for anticipatory adaptation suggest that social capital attributes and a variety of mitigation measures play a critical role in alleviating flood risks. In addition, counties with higher levels of adaptive capacity rebound more quickly from sudden climate-induced events. Effective and proactive local adaptation planning and policy combined with a region-wide understanding of anticipatory adaptation and temporal matches, spatial differentials, and impulse-response dynamics can help minimise disaster loss and make disaster-prone communities more resilient to future events.

Seeking anticipatory adaptation: adaptive capacity and resilience to flood risk