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How do changes in ethnic composition affect voter turnout? In Russia, a country that institutionalizes ethnicity through federalism, research demonstrates that geographically concentrated ethnic minorities increase voter turnout, but has not explored how  shifts  in ethnic composition over time affect participation. This study uses unique fine-grained demographic data from the 2002 and 2010 All-Russia National Censuses and electoral data from the 2011 and 2016 legislative contests to investigate these dynamics. The findings reveal that surges in the minority population over time depressed turnout in the Putin regime's former electoral strongholds, which indicates that the regime is experiencing newfound vulnerabilities.

A Chink in the Autocrat’s Armour: Demographic Change and Voter Turnout in Putin’s Russia