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An efficient method to predict extreme pressures considering the sloshing in a rectangular tank subjected to in-plane irregular rotational motions is proposed. First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is applied to evaluate the probability distribution of pressure, while the open-source Smoothed-Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code DualSPHysics is used for obtaining time-domain pressures. To attain an efficient extreme value prediction, a simplified surrogate model is formulated so that the SPH results are represented with fast computations. An efficient extreme value prediction is achieved without directly using SPH to the series calculations with various stochastic variables during FORM. FORM results are validated by comparing the reliability index with the Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, the difference in the sloshing-induced impact pressures evaluated by the two-dimensional and three-dimensional SPH under the most probable wave episodes obtained by FORM is presented, and then the applicability of the present surrogate model to the three-dimensional SPH is demonstrated.

Surrogate model approach for stochastic prediction of sloshing-induced pressure based on SPH with FORM