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The study asks whether bookmakers alter the closing betting odds on European football matches due to potential variation in team incentives to exert effort to win games based on position in the standings. Effort is a multidimensional concept and teams have many ways to alter effort supplied in a match. For example, the players included or left out of the starting 11, the tactics used in a specific match, substitutions made during a match, and other factors under team control, can be interpreted as changes in effort supplied. OLS models explaining observed variation in betting odds are estimated for roughly 25,000 regular season football games in 8 top European domestic leagues from 2000–2001 through 2018–2019. Regression results indicate bookmakers alter betting odds on matches involving clubs in the middle of the domestic league standings that have no chance of qualifying for the Champions/Europa Leagues or being relegated. In other words, bookmakers and bettors believe these teams will not put forth maximum effort to compete in and win these matches. We find similar results for teams already assured of relegation and teams that already clinched the league championship. Overall, the research contributes to literature analyzing the impact of incentives in sporting contests. As the world of professional sport and sports gambling become increasingly interconnected and integrated, the results of the study present opportunities not only for collaboration between the parties but also an increased understanding on the role league design has on individual match outcomes.

Contest incentives, team effort, and betting market outcomes in European football