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Based on ‘Made in China 2025’, this paper empirically explores how customer stability influences innovation investment and the mediating effect of managerial overconfidence. The results indicate that customer stability significantly and positively affects innovation investment and that managerial overconfidence partially mediates this relationship. The effect significantly differs before and after ‘Made in China 2025’. Furthermore, the customer concentration enhances the impact of innovation investment on market value. Overall, by exploring the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, this study enriches relevant theories of supply chain management and provides practical guidance for innovation activities.

Customer stability, managerial overconfidence, and enterprise investment in innovation: a perspective based on “Made in China 2025”