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This paper analyzes the potential for natural gas in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia in order to develop a model that accurately describes the adequacy of transmission capacities in the region up until the year 2035. Two scenarios are created using the model. The first scenario is based on the situation prior to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, while the second scenario considers the conflict, allowing to observe its impact. In the Original Scenario, gas was an indisputable part of the energy mix, and it was desirable to increase the transmission capacity. In contrast, the Reduction Scenario aims to reduce gas consumption and to diversify the portfolio of suppliers, which makes its role uncertain. Under this scenario the flow distribution significantly changes and neglects the transit role of the selected region. The surprising result was that the flow through Ukraine became the main gas flowing from Russia. Both scenarios also shared a common outcome – the importance of storage capacities.

Natural gas as a transition bridge by 2035 and its transmission capacities adequacy