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As a fast-growing economy with over 1.35 billion people, India will be critical to achieving future climate targets. The country implemented many policies to limit its carbon emissions. To make targeted policies, it is imperative to evaluate the mutually opposing effects of fast development and climate policies on carbon emissions. We apply environmentally extended input-output analysis, and structural path and decomposition analysis to calculate key emission statistics and drivers of change in critical sectors and production paths. Results reveal that India is a net exporter of emissions and its production and consumption-based emissions have more than doubled between 2000 and 2016. Two sectors, ‘Electricity, gas, and water’ and ‘petroleum, chemical, and non-metallic mineral products,’ function as supplying sectors in most of the critical paths. Although improvements in emission intensity and production structure have helped in reducing emissions, household consumption and investments have increased them.

Drivers and critical paths of carbon emissions in India: a structural path decomposition analysis