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To meet the targets of carbon emission reductions and mitigate climate change, Chinese government actively supports the development of photovoltaic power (PV). Assessing the feasibility of development model and the possibility to achieve carbon emission targets should firstly address the relationship of PV development compared to coal-fired power (CFP), this study evaluated economic and environmental effects of PV and CFP from life-cycle perspective and further forecasted the optimal proportions of PV replacing CFP in 2030 and 2050, considering land resources and energy demand changes. First, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of PV and CFP is 0.55–0.80 CNY/kWh and 0.40 CNY/kWh, respectively, while the carbon emission of PV was 91.95 g/kWh, much less than that of CFP (775.86 g/kWh). Second, ever-increasing carbon emission and total cost indicates replacing CFP with PV possesses great advantages for both economy and environment, while land limitations suggested PV cannot completely replace CFP. Third, to resolve the contradiction among these factors and contribute to sustainable development, this study, using learning curve and results of calculation, further worked out optimal ratio for PV and CFP which is stable at 55.21% and 44.79% during present stage, but 69.86% and 30.14% are suggested in 2050, separately.

Proportional optimization forecasting analysis of photovoltaic and coal-fired power in 2050, China: the economic and environmental perspectives