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This paper evaluates China’s fiscal sustainability by examining national and regional revenue-expenditure nexuses from a time-frequency perspective. Our analysis is novel since research on China in this respect remains limited, and existing literature largely neglects time-frequency dependencies. We employ wavelet techniques to identify the time-frequency relationship between government revenue and expenditure from 1952 to 2020. We find that the national and regional revenue-expenditure nexuses are frequency-dependent and time-varying, providing a possible explanation for the mixed patterns emerging from the analyses based on traditional methods. In addition, the medium- and long-term national and regional revenue-expenditure nexuses in recent years predominantly support the institutional separation hypothesis. These findings indicate that China’s fiscal risk is rising and urge for fundamental reforms to safeguard budgetary sustainability.

Tracking China’s Fiscal Sustainability: A Time-Frequency Perspective