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Limited research has taken the contingency perspective to analyze the conditions under which the impact of top leader turnover on public organizations’ performance may vary. Using panel data from New York City public high schools, this study not only examines the main effect of principal turnover on schools’ performance but also how the main effect depends on schools’ baseline performance. Two estimation strategies—namely fixed effect models and Blundell–Bond dynamic panel models—find a consistent pattern that leader turnover is negatively associated with subsequent organizational performance, and the negative impact is stronger in low-performing organizations than it is in high-performing organizations. This study contributes to the literature by showing that the disruptive effects of leader turnover outweigh the adaptive effects in some public organizations. Moreover, the contingency perspective highlights the role of pre-turnover performance in moderating the effect of leader turnover.

Linking Top Leader Turnover to the Performance of Public Organizations: Evidence from New York City Public High Schools