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At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the Philippines expanded its defense network throughout Asia given the structural incentives and constraints brought by the dominance of the United States and the rise of China. However, the status of the Philippines-India defense partnership remains a puzzling case. Despite motivating structural conditions since the beginning of the twenty-first century, why has the Philippines only begun to significantly maximize its defense partnership with India in 2016? While dominant theories are unable to address this puzzle, the neoclassical realist approach offers some clarity. This article explains how variations in state leaders’ perceptions in the Philippines delayed Manila’s ability to forge strong defense relations with India despite the presence of favorable structural conditions since the beginning of the twenty-first century.

A neoclassical realist analysis of the evolving Philippines–India defense partnership in the twenty-first century