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An early age of onset for criminal behavior has long been considered a major predictor of future offending and recidivism, but there is limited information on the mechanism or mechanisms responsible for this effect. In the current study, it was predicted that reactive criminal thinking (RCT), but not proactive criminal thinking (PCT), would mediate the well-documented connection between an early age of criminal conviction and subsequent recidivism. This hypothesis was tested in a group of 1,435 adult male offenders assessed with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) as they matriculated through a medium security federal prison. All participants were eventually released from custody and followed for a period of 1 to 76 months. Consistent with the research hypothesis, RCT, but not PCT, predicted time-to-event recidivism in a standard Cox regression analysis and mediated the relationship between age at time of first criminal conviction and recidivism in a mediational path analysis. These results suggest that early onset criminality has the capacity to predict RCT, and the disruptive effect this has on a person’s ability to exercise control over their behavior increases their odds of reoffending once they are released from prison.

Mediating the age at first conviction–recidivism relationship with reactive criminal thinking