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At present, the prediction of the icing occurrence for asphalt pavement will take a lot of time, and data are relatively discrete. In this study, the heat transfer equation of phase transition was deduced based on theory of heat transfer and ice–water phase transition, and icing prediction model of pavement was also established through finite element software. The results show that the icing time and rutting plate temperature of indoor experiment are close to simulated results, which verifies effectiveness of prediction model. On this basis, when other factors remain unchanged, the lower ambient temperature and higher the wind speed will accelerate speed of road icing, but the degree of speeding up speed of road icing will reduce. The reduction of depth of accumulated water can also accelerate speed of road icing, but the degree of speeding up speed of road icing first increases and then decreases.

Analysis on influencing factors of asphalt pavement icing and establishment of icing prediction model