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Recent literature highlights the value of applying theories of change in the design of projects and programmes preventing/countering violent extremism (P/CVE). Theories of change are tools that explain how the results of an intervention are expected to happen. As such, they add further layers of understanding to traditional results hierarchies, thereby strengthening their quality and reducing risk. This is because, when made explicit, assumptions about how change occurs can be tested and validated or disproved provided that sufficient and accurate data about them is collected and analysed. When fed back into programming, and implementation, the results will strengthen the basis for stronger and more effective responses to violent extremism. Conversely, the absence of a clear theory of change may obscure critical understandings concerning the intervention logic and weaken the basis for expected results.

Enhancing the quality of P/CVE programming through robust application of theory of change