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Overseas investment and tourism economy development play important roles in the inclusive growth of small island developing states (SIDS). Taking the level of tourism economy growth as a threshold, this study explores the relationship between China’s FDI to 29 SIDS and SIDS’ inclusive growth from 2005 to 2020. This connection is investigated via the entropy method, a panel autoregressive model, and a panel threshold regression model and data from the World Bank and the Ministry of Commerce of China. Several findings emerge: (1) SIDS’ inclusive growth index demonstrated an upward trend, with PROFIT-type SIDS’ inclusive growth being highest; (2) China’s FDI to SIDS could effectively promote SIDS’ inclusive growth; and (3) tourism economic growth had a threshold effect and region–type heterogeneity within the process of FDI and SIDS’ inclusive growth. The positive impact of China’s FDI on SIDS’ inclusive growth rose by 42.308% when SIDS’ tourism receipts (% of GDP) reached 25.950%. The threshold effect was strongest in the AIMS region and was not significant in the Pacific region. A double-threshold effect applied to PROFIT-type SIDS. Additionally, the threshold effect was strongest in SITEs-type SIDS and was not significant in MIRAB-type SIDS.

The threshold effect of tourism economy development on the relationship between FDI and SIDS’ inclusive growth