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Recent scholarship reports a strong statistical correlation between civil wars and international conflicts, yet the process whereby internal warfare generates external military confrontations remains understudied and obscure. Insight into the linkage can be gained from a detailed exploration of the southern theatre of the Syrian uprising. From 2011 to 2013, sporadic skirmishes took place between anti-government forces and defenders of the Ba’thi regime in Syria’s southern provinces, with little impact on interstate conflict. As fighting in the south grew more severe and more complex during 2014–2015, however, there was a sharp increase in the level and frequency of cross-border military confrontations. Explicating how the escalation of internal warfare generated heightened external clashes in this particular case improves our general understanding of the circumstances in which civil wars generate international conflicts.

Civil wars and international conflicts revisited: insights from the southern theatre of the Syrian uprising, 2011–2017