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This study simulated the effects of land-use changes on runoff pollution in a catchment of Tehran, Iran. The catchment has a semi-arid climate, a relatively long period from dry summer to rainy autumn and highly varying precipitation levels. Urban runoff samples were collected from six stations including five different land-based activities and a mixed land-use, which supported all land-use types. Event Mean Concentration (EMC) was applied to determine the Nonpoint Source (NPS) pollution of urban runoff such as Total Suspended Solid (TSS), Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP) and heavy metals, including zinc (Zn), copper (Cu) and lead (Pb), in five land-uses. Sampling was performed during five events with different Antecedent Dry Days (ADDs) in time period 2019-2020. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was employed to simulate the quality of urban runoff base on measured EMCs in each event for the different parameters under investigation and the average of measured EMCs. The results illustrated that that the maximum and minimum amount of EMCs were pertained to the events with 115 and 1 dry days respectively. While, daily simulation of runoff pollution based on measured amount of EMCs in the catchment indicated that the calibration criteria such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Objective Function (NOF), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and  R2  were very good for the minimum amount of EMCs and satisfactory for the average of EMC`s calculated, NSE values was not satisfactory for the maximum amount of EMCs. Uncertainty of ADDs can significantly affect the results of the maximum EMC simulation. This study also found higher TSS and TP concentrations in runoff in open space land-use and significantly higher heavy metals and TN concentrations in runoff in the industrial land-use compared with other land-use types in the catchment.

The effects of antecedent dry days and land use types on urban runoff quality in a semi-Arid region