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In this paper, two competing hypotheses of the origin of the military conflict are considered: the empire’s aggression against a former colony and the possibility of a civil war within Ukraine. The paper describes theoretical models for both scenarios and compares the factors and characteristics of the two stages of this war with these models. The within-case analysis for Russia and Ukraine shows a high probability of the colonial nature of the war. This conclusion not only informs a correct assessment of Russian aggression but also holds practical importance for developing methods to overcome the consequences of this war.

Russian invasion of Ukraine: civil or colonial war?