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This paper examines the structural political and economic determinants of country-level severity of the COVID-19 pandemic. By conducting an empirical analysis of 118 countries through the first wave of the pandemic, we show that – unlike natural disasters and past viral outbreaks – national wealth has not insulated countries from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. Further, we show that timely and responsive policy measures are vital, but so too is the capacity of governments to compel their populations to adhere the chosen policies. While a society's age structure is a key determinant of its COVID-19 mortality rate, we demonstrate that political capacity, combined with an appropriate policy response, outweighs economic and demographic factors in forecasting within-country severity of the pandemic.

Politics, policy, and pandemic control: a global perspective