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Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has consistently dismissed the severity of COVID-19, failing to offer guidance and leadership to the governors of federative units responsible for containing the virus and making Brazil an illustrative case of societies most affected by the pandemic due to political negligence and inaction. This article presents a subnational analysis of Brazil’s federative units, examining the effects of policy responsiveness and political capacity on COVID-19 mortality. Specifically, this analysis identifies a conditional relationship between policy effectiveness and governments’ ability to reach and convince their populations to abide by policy recommendations, controlling for other leading explanations of COVID-19 severity (i.e. demographic characteristics, behavioral trends, and preparedness). This work implements subnational measures of political capacity to capture heterogeneity in government responses within the country. Results from random effects regression and a Generalized Additive Model add to recent findings on the role of effective governance in mitigating COVID-19 severity.

Failing to mitigate COVID-19 severity: the case of Brazil