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While the Russian decision to annex Crimea has been widely explored and debated, scholarship has largely overlooked the Ukrainian response. Why did the Ukrainian side refrain from escalating? I address this gap, leveraging recently declassified primary-source materials from Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council to provide an original explanation for the Ukrainian decision not to fight for the peninsula. I find evidence in favor of realist explanations, while domestic politics was largely absent in decision-makers’ discussions. Additionally, I find prospect theory to offer a compelling account for the Ukrainian decision. This article therefore explains why decision-makers were risk-averse despite the loss of Ukrainian territory.

Why Didn’t Ukraine Fight for Crimea? Evidence from Declassified National Security and Defense Council Proceedings