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Counterfactual estimates of excess deaths in Russian regions in 2020 are compared with actual deaths to measure the initial COVID impact. COVID is a real threat to high labor productivity regions and those with relatively bigger defense sectors. Corruption is surprisingly found to lower excess deaths. Legacy Soviet human capital and early Putin era democracy don’t appear to impact excess deaths. Urban males are most threatened with an even greater negative impact on the economy as COVID moves into working age brackets in the medium term. Living in rural areas and/or in regions far from Moscow was relatively safer in 2020.

Excess Pandemic Mortality in Russia’s Regions in 2020