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This paper aims at building from existing sociological, economic, political and strategic knowledge an analysis that anticipates the emergence of the Mafia. By employing Mill’s method of agreement, the research finds that it is very probable that the aftermath of the Syrian War yields fertile terrain for the emergence of the Mafia. The reasons of this are fourfold: (1) as the black market expands in Syria and the rights of private property become blurred once ‘peace’ is restored, (2) the postwar Syrian State will be either unwilling and unable to protect the property rights of its population, (3) this situation would result in a widespread institutional distrust that will provoke the population to seek alternative forms of private protection; (4) an abundant supply of insurgents and terrorists trained in violence will meet the emergent demand. This conclusion sheds light on the importance for policymakers to take prompt action to change the probable course of history of Syria.

The Emergence of the Mafia in Post-War Syria: The Terror-Crime Continuum