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This study examined the experiential knowledge of eight Australian national-level football referees (3.2 yrs mean national-level experience) about the notion of consistent decision-making during competitive matches. Using a grounded theory approach, the analysis revealed that participants view “consistency” as context-dependent, rather than a rigid process of uniformly responding to isolated foul-play transgressions with putatively correct responses. Our results present two key conceptual abstractions—”referential and game dependent” and “purpose and context”—as a framework for understanding referee decision-making consistency. Results evidence that in higher level referees, consistent decision-making performance is an emergent process defined by the decision-making actions of the referee, and exploitation of specifying contextual game factors. Our discussion outlines how this process can be understood as dynamical transactions within a complex system (i.e. competitive football game), in which varying decision-making responses to superficially similar incidents is a marker of expertise, rather than inconsistency. These findings draw attention to the limitations of isolated foul-play video assessment, suggesting that training orientated toward complete uniform agreement on game incidents may reduce attention (attunement) to key contextual information that is necessary to prospectively control player behaviors and thus, the emergent trajectory of each game. Instead, findings support more representative game opportunities for referees to practice making decisions with key contextual information sources present. Future research could consider the extent context and/or variability define performance at different levels of competition and across sports with distinct cultural structures.

Sport arbitration as an emergent process in a complex system: Decision-making variability is a marker of expertise in national-level football referees