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Agricultural systems supply a wide range of ecosystem services. Projecting future agricultural land-use changes is key to anticipating the potential impacts of human activities. In this work, we assessed future agricultural land-use changes, using the Dinamica-EGO platform, under three scenarios: A0-(business-as-usual), A1-(sustainable agriculture), and A2-(agricultural intensification) for 2040 in the Šiauliai region (Lithuania). Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by using a Moran’s I index and the spatial patterns with the Getis analysis and landscape metrics. The results showed that croplands will increase 29.6% in the A0, 14.95% in the A1, and 29.63% in the A3 scenario. According to the Getis results, cold spots are in the surrounding of Šiauliai city, and hot spots in the northeast of the Šiauliai region. It was verified a high cropland fragmentation in A1 and low fragmentation in A0 and A2 scenarios. These results are critical for land management to understand cropland impacts under different scenarios.

Scenarios of future land use/land cover changes: impacts on cropland use in Šiauliai region (Lithuania)