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Environmental and climatic factors contribute to the range of causes of increased socioecological conflicts, especially in the transcontinental transition areas. However, knowledge of the precise extent and patterns of environmental change driving social and migratory mutations in these areas is still quite limited. This article shows that the Mediterranean transition fringe will undergo climatic-environmental degradation except from four scattered areas of abundance which are likely to be more affected by human activity by 2050. Through an integral socioecological approach, it was found that long droughts are likely to alternate with sporadic intense storms with an impact on the loss of biodiversity, degradation of biocultural heritage, and reduction of ecosystem services. Forced migration trends towards areas of abundance have been identified according to particularly stressful divergent flows at European borders (Turkey and Morocco). The need for increased international cooperation and cross-cultural exchange is foreseen to identify and address common challenges.

Spatial patterns of environmental degradation and demographic changes in the Mediterranean fringes