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The article analyses the complex history of Nagorny Karabakh and the wider Caucasus and its implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Special attention is paid to the geopolitical role of Iran, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom and other states. It contends that the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and its aftermath signalled a new historical stage in the geopolitical rearrangement of the region, primarily between Russia and Turkey, a situation reminiscent of the deal between Lenin’s Russia and Atatürk’s Turkey a century ago. Arguably, it is this rearrangement—as well as the ensuing reconfiguration of Russia’s and Turkey’s relationships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan—rather than the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s relationship with its patron state of Armenia that will determine the future existence of the NKR as a  de facto  state.

The De Facto State of Nagorno-Karabakh: Historical and Geopolitical Perspectives