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Disabilities are increasing globally, which is attributed to the overall ageing of populations in affluent countries. This trend may differ in low and middle-income countries. This paper assesses the change over time in Years Lived with Disability (YLD) for South Africa and how this compares to regional and global trends. This secondary analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 dataset describes the observed contribution of YLD to Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100 000 people over the period 1990–2016, and forecast to 2030 using simple linear prediction. South African trends are compared to global and sub-Saharan African (SSA) trends to highlight the effect of HIV and policy implications. Globally, the contribution of YLD to DALYs has increased from ±21.7% in 1990 to ±34% by 2016, with high socio-demographic index countries having a higher contribution (49%). HIV, mental health, musculoskeletal, neurological, and sense organ disorders are the five main contributors to YLD in South Africa (54%). Removing the effects of HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections on YLD, South Africa’s trend appears similar to the global trend, yet opposite to the SSA trend. Our analysis shows there is a growing burden of disability in South Africa. Differences in trends with the regional and global patterns can be attributed to the high burden of HIV and non-communicable diseases in South Africa. Therefore, strategies are urgently needed to increase integration of disability and rehabilitation services into chronic HIV and non-communicable disease management. This calls for disability screening to identify functional limitations in routine data collection and case management.IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONSouth Africa has experienced an increase in disability prevalence over time.This requires strengthening of services such as mental health interventions, physiotherapy, optometry, and audiology, and linking major disease clusters, such as HIV and the NCDs, to rehabilitation services.The greatest contributors towards disability adjusted life years in South Africa are currently mental disorders (13.8%), HIV and sexually transmitted infections (11.8%), musculoskeletal disorders (10.4%), neurological disorders (8.2%), and sense organ diseases (7.5%).Routine data collection and case management needs to include disability screening to identify developing functional limitations. South Africa has experienced an increase in disability prevalence over time. This requires strengthening of services such as mental health interventions, physiotherapy, optometry, and audiology, and linking major disease clusters, such as HIV and the NCDs, to rehabilitation services. The greatest contributors towards disability adjusted life years in South Africa are currently mental disorders (13.8%), HIV and sexually transmitted infections (11.8%), musculoskeletal disorders (10.4%), neurological disorders (8.2%), and sense organ diseases (7.5%). Routine data collection and case management needs to include disability screening to identify developing functional limitations.

Disability, a priority area for health research in South Africa: an analysis of the burden of disease study 2017