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This study investigates how the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affected China’s province-level trade. Using data on trade for January to April 2019 and 2020 and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases or deaths, we empirically examine the effects of COVID-19-related damage on provincial exports and imports separately. We find that, on average, the COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to a reduction in provincial trade. However, we find negatively significant effects on trade in some provinces (e.g. those with a smaller number of deaths during a past coronavirus outbreak) and some industries (e.g. labor-intensive industries).

Heterogeneous Impacts of COVID-19 on trade: Evidence from China’s province-level data