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We argue that probability mistakes indicate that at least some of us often do not adequately possess the concept of probability (and its cognates) and that the digital dissemination of such misinformation helps foster collective irrationalities (e.g., COVID-19 underestimation and vaccination hesitancy), with detrimental effect for society. Such probability mistakes betray that at least some of us often do not grasp necessary conditions on the concept of probability, what we call probability fixed points. Our case study that illustrates this phenomenon in action is the recent COVID-19 pandemic. We present paradigmatic examples of probability mistakes during the COVID-19 pandemic and explain how such mistakes are especially prone to help create digital epistemic bubbles and echo chambers (cf. Nguyen ( 2020 )) that foster collective irrationalities, such as COVID-19 underestimation and skepticism and vaccination hesitancy.

Probability fixed points, (in)adequate concept possession and COVID-19 irrationalities