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Was the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a regional and global threat a strategic surprise? If so, what made it so difficult to anticipate? Based on an open-source analysis about developments in Syria and Iraq between April 2013 and June 2014, this article’s main argument is that ISIS’ rise to power was a partial surprise. Namely, specialists were aware of the broader long-term developments that led to ISIS’ rise to power but were surprised by the short-term elements that led to its fast surge. This article is the first systematic analysis of the local, regional, and international developments related to ISIS’ surge through the lens of UK quality media and nongovernmental organization reporting. By advancing knowledge of how terrorist movements emerge and at what point analysts identify them as threats, this article advances our understanding of early warnings related to a terrorist threat and what possibilities there are to counter it early on.

The Rise of ISIS as a Partial Surprise: An Open-Source Analysis on the Threat Evolution and Early Warnings in the United Kingdom