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A model suggests that Schelling salience through social traplike processes can generate dysfunctional organizational mindsets that increase the likelihood of intelligence failure. Schelling salience refers to how certain aspects can spontaneously and tacitly become collectively cognitively prominent, and thus, coordinate behavior. Short-term benefits of a predominant mindset may generate long-term biases in analysis, collection, and decisionmakers’ responsiveness. Strong mindsets do not inevitably generate intelligence failures. However, a particular organizational state, referred to as a “pleasant attractor,” where sustained strategies produce satisficing outcomes and alternative strategies are more uncertain and/or costly, is conducive to biased mindsets causing intelligence failures. Findings from an examination of nineteen historical cases of intelligence failures and successes, with an emphasis on four sequences of cases with an initial intelligence failure, supported the model.

Schelling Traps as Drivers of Intelligence Failure