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This article presents a model that simulates the dynamics of water demand, water supply and the instability of water allocation schemes at the national river basin scale during water scarcity. The Zhanghe River Basin in China is used as a case study to demonstrate the model. The optimum solution, minimizing water allocation instability, allocated most of the river’s water to the downstream sub-basin, with most of the water assigned for downstream use allocated to Anyang city. The results show that the socioeconomic–environmental dynamics of the stakeholders in a water-sharing problem should be taken into account when allocating water.

A system dynamics simulation model for water conflicts in the Zhanghe River Basin, China