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Using eight cross-section econometric models applied to a sample of 31 countries, we find that, although the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) of COVID-19 is explained by ‘structural’ variables that were given prior to the pandemic (healthcare infrastructure, comorbidities, poverty and the HDI), the ’response’ variables to the crisis (fiscal support, health policy, and, above all, government narrative) have been determinant in the evolution of the pandemic. We show that the dummy variable representing populist countries is significant, demonstrating that, as Shiller (2017) stated, narrative plays a major role in shaping behavior and economic outcomes.

Mexico: the populism/COVID-19 syndemic