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This article develops a theory of analytical innovation in intelligence systems using the craft of the ‘net assessment’ methodology in the US as a case study. Employing congruence method and process-tracing and drawing on multi-archival sources, the article demonstrates that at the roots of analytical innovation are three variables: the setting of a requirement, the conduct of methodological experiments and the synthesis of analytical knowledge. The study also reveals that the nature of analytical intelligence innovation is dyadic, consisting of an organizational and an ideational component.

Analytical innovation in intelligence systems: the US national security establishment and the craft of ‘net assessment’