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The rapid decline of Lake Urmia in northwest Iran, caused by both human and natural factors, motivated our utilization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The objective was to identify the most effective reservoir outflow simulation scheme and assess the influence of land use changes in the Zarrineh River basin on Lake Urmia. The target release approach for controlled reservoirs and the measured outflow schemes were evaluated. Despite improved calibration results in the latter method, the former demonstrated superior performance during the validation phase. Three land use scenarios – a model with the 2001 land use map, a model with the 2008 land use map, and a model with a gradually updating land use map – were considered. The gradually updating land use scenario exhibited a significant enhancement in validation results; it showed a 250% increase in water yield, while evapotranspiration declined by 3%.

Evaluating the effects of reservoir outflow and land-use change on the Zarrineh River basin