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This paper models domestic (internal) and cross-border dynamics of instability through the lens of ‘ABM modelling–AfriLand-Rebel’. It examines the post-Gaddafi Libya and its export of instability in the region. It gives a useful balance of analysis on socio-cultural and environmental dynamics which transcend national boundaries, such as the influx and out-flux of refugee flows, insurgency, transnational conflict and crime in the Sahel. It examines the broader regional implications of conflict due to refugee flows, proliferation of weapons and spill over effects of insecurity. Methodologically, it employs the use of descriptive analysis relying solely on secondary information for data generation and analysis. The paper therefore posits that ensuring future stability in the region would require investments in education, infrastructure, poverty alleviation and good governance initiatives, all of which are critical to addressing the broader causes and spread of insecurity and violent extremism in the Sahel region.

Conceptualisation of regional instability in Sahel: modelling ABM–AfriLand-Rebel Approach